by J.D. at The Inside Slant | 12-13-2013 16:00
Guest post by J.D. at The Inside Slant
The perception when looking at the Bears vs Browns match up is to bet the under. Then when you factor the wind, temperature and chance of snow. The under looks even better. When you look back to last week, those weather conditions really didn't matter in a few of those games. But after the smoke had cleared and people were licking their betting under wounds that day, A member on our site made a good point.
Snow on the field really helps the offense. His point was simple when you think about it. The player on offense knows where he is going. But the player on defense doesn't and has to react. If you go back to some of those bad weather games last week. There was a ton of missed tackles. Most of them were from guys trying to react and losing their footing.
One of those games that went over was the Lions at the Eagles. Had the weather been perfect, most people would have never bet the under. But, when they heard about the weather and seen the high number the total was set at, they figured it was a slam dunk win.
Over the years the Bears had a decent defense and the Browns were looked at as having a bad offense. So based on perception you would think the under is the play. I'm not writing this to tell anybody what to play or trying to talk them out of a play. My point is that you need to look at more numbers and not just perception.
Let's look at the Bears, 9-4 over on the season.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Chicago's last 13 games on the road
Average points scored = 28.3 per game
Average points allowed = 27.7 per game
Now let’s review the Browns, 7-6 over on the year.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Average points scored = 19.8 per game
Average points allowed = 24.9 per game
As the game gets closer, keep an eye on the weather and if snow looks possible, the line should start to drift down.
If you like the over, then wait it out for the best possible line. Now if you like the under, you might want to jump on the line asap.
Keep tabs on this games weather right here at NFLWeather.com http://www.nflweather.com/game/2013/week-15/bears-at-browns
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Thanks and good luck this weekend. J.D.
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