Battle of Antietam 2016: Redskins vs Ravens
Se esperan fuertes vientos y lluvia para el choque entre los rivales del estado de Maryland este domingo, cuando los Redskins de Washington tomen la autopista I-95 hacia el norte para ir a enfrentar a los Baltimore Ravens.
Joe Flacco. Photo courtesy of USA Today.De acuerdo a NFLWeather.com, se esperan vientos con una maxima de 20 mph este domingo en el stadio M&T Bank. No ayuda para nada que el huracan Matthew se espera que pase en ese momento por la costa este de los Estados Unidos llevando con el luvias y una humedad de cerca del 90%. Hay serias chances de que el inicio del partido a las 13 horas presente lluvias. Estas malas condiciones complicaran las cosas para los pateadores, especialmente porque la superficie de Bermuda Grass de dicho estadio ya sufrio el mal clima del domingo pasado.
Muchos critican a Joe Flacco, pero, el quaterback campeon del Super Bowl siempre parece ingeniarselas para lograr una victoria, aun si muchas veces lo hace sin desplegar un gran juego. Los numeros de Flacco hablan por si mismos. De acuerdo a la seccion de analisis historicvo de NFLWeather.com , Flacco esta 7-1 en juegos con lluvia desde 2009 y la ofensiva que el lidera promedia 27 puntos por partido. En esos ocho partidos afectados por el clima, tiene un promedio de 236 yardas por aire en 30 intentos, ha encontrado la zona de anotacion 11 veces y solo ha entregado el balon en dos ocasiones. Esta temporada llega a este partido con un promedio de 42.5 intentos de pase por partido. Esto nos indica que Flacco pasara la pelota sin importar las condiciones climaticas.
Historicamente, Baltimore (3-1) ha buscado por aire a Dennis Pitta (TE) en partidos afectados por el clima. En los ultimos partidos con lluvia, Pitta tiene un promedio de 7 recepciones para 85 yardas y al menos un touchdown. El va a ser la primer opcion de pase en la zona roja. Por su parte el veloz Mike Wallace, Steve Smith Sr. y Kamar Aiken seran las opciones para pase profundo y de costura (Smith es el lider de recepciones esta tremporada) siempre que el viento lo permita. Terrance West ha pasado a Justin Forsett como el principal corredor pero Forsett continua siendo la primer opcion de pase desde el backfield. Si el partido se juega bajo la lluvia, ser puede esperar que Joe Flacco busque principalmente los pases cortos y rutas cruzadas. No deberia sorprendernos si Baltimore anota consistentemente contra una defensa que se encuentra en la ultima posicion en la liga en primeros downs permitidos y yardas por aire (413) permitidas por partido.
El ataque de Washington (2-2) no parece tan complejo como el de los Ravens. Matt Jones, el principal corredor de los Redskins, ha probado su capacidad mas y mas a medida que han pasado las semanas y se le han dado cada vez mas acarreos (semana 1: 7, semana 2: 13, semana 3: 17, semana 4: 22). Viene de el mejor partido de su carrera la semana pasada contra Cleveland (117 yardas y un touchdown). Ha mayor lluvia, mas chances de que Jones tenga mas acarreos. Por su parte Jay Gruden intentara quitarle presion a Kirk Cousins, quien no se ha visto consistente ultimamente, tanto con el juego por tierra con Jones como con pases cortos a Jordan Reed.
Cousins esta 0-2 en su carrera bajo la lluvia y los Redskins no han ganado en la lluvia desde 2008 (0-6 desde entonces). Contra una defensa que solo permite un promedio de 11 puntos en juegos con lluvia desde 2009, los Redskins necesitaran una tormenta de entregas de balon por parte de Baltimore para ganar este partido.
The intrastate clash between Maryland rivals will be a soggy one on Sunday as heavy wind and rain are forecasted to roll through the greater Chesapeake region as the Washington Redskins take the I-95 northbound to battle the Baltimore Ravens.
Joe Flacco. Photo courtesy of USA Today.According to NFLWeather.com, a gusting wind maxing out around 20 mph is expected to be in full-swirl on Sunday inside M&T Bank Stadium. It doesn’t help the situation that Hurricane Matthew is projected to be climbing up the eastern seaboard towards the end of the week and with rain as well as 90%+ humidity already in the Saturday forecast. Chances are Sunday showers could hit for the 1pm kickoff. The crummy conditions will be a nightmare for the kicking game, especially on the slick Bermuda Grass surface that was already battered during last weekend’s narrow loss to Oakland.
Haters love to knock on Joe Flacco, but, the former Super Bowl winner always seems to find a way to pull out a win despite never looking overwhelmingly impressive. Flacco’s numbers speak for themselves. According to the NFLWeather.com Historical Analytics, Flacco is 7-1 in rain games since 2009 and anchors an offense that averages over 27 points per matchup. Over that eight-game span, he’s averaged 236 passing yards per game and 30 passing attempts while finding the endzone 11 times and only turning the ball over twice. Averaging almost 42.5 passing attempts per game this season, it’s safe to say Flacco will air it out, rain or shine.
Historically, the Baltimore (3-1) QB’s top target in poor weather matchups has been his tight end, Dennis Pitta. In the Ravens most recent rain games, Pitta has averaged seven receptions for roughly 85 yards and at least one touchdown. He’ll be the top redzone target while the undersized yet overwhelmingly speedy Mike Wallace, Steve Smith Sr. and Kamar Aiken will be the seam and deep route options (Smith has both the most receptions and targets this season), pending the wind will allow it. The only thing more difficult than predicting who will be Baltimore’s weekly top receiver is picking the more imposing running back. Terrance West has passed Justin Forsett as the lead rusher but Forsett continues to be the more targeted back in passing situations. If a downpour hits the harbor, expect Joe Flacco to look more for swing passes to his backs as well as short, crossing routes for his receivers. Don’t be stunned if Baltimore runs up the score on a defense that is tied for the league-worst in first downs allowed and gives up over 413 passing yards per game.
The Washington (2-2) offense isn’t quite the conundrum the Ravens’ is. Matt Jones, who was penciled in as lead back in the Redskins attack to start that season, has been proving himself more and more each and every week by seeing an increasing workload (week 1: 7, week 2: 13, week 3: 17, week 4: 22). Last week was a career-day for Jones against Cleveland as he torched the Browns D for 117 yards and a touchdown. The more rain in the forecast, the more carries we should expect from Jones as Jay Gruden will look to take the pressure off his inconsistent quarterback, Kirk Cousins. He’ll also do so by having his QB look for quick dump passes to versatile tight end, Jordan Reed.
Cousins is 0-2 in career rain games but the Redskins haven’t won a game in the rain since 2008 (0-6 since then). Against a defense that historically only surrenders 11 points per game in the rain since ’09, the Redskins need a monsoon of Baltimore turnovers if they have any shot of pulling this one out.
